Do they really know what they are talking about?

February 4th, 2010

Deputy Premier and Finance minister Rosann Wowchuk sent me a letter recently about Manitoba Hydro. The letter was in response to a challenge I sent to the NDP government about the money they had spent on consulting with First Nations communities. I asked if I could publish her letter and permission was refused but the letter was re-written as a letter to the editor and part of it is quoted below.
“Manitoba Hydro is entering an exciting new decade of investment in the future of our province. Major new hydro-electric generation and transmission projects require large capital investments but the returns to Manitobans are many times greater and will endure for generations to come. The $160 million of payments provided to Aboriginal communities must be considered in the context of the total costs of these major projects. In the case of the new Wuskwatim and Keeyask generating stations, the funds provided are less than 2.5 per cent of total estimated project costs.”
Now Mrs. Wowchuk may think “Manitoba Hydro is entering an exciting new decade of investment in the future of our province”, however, given the track record of the NDP in particular, and governments in general, I doubt that all the “due diligence” has been done. Aside from investing $160 million into consulting with First Nations, by the government’s own figures noted above we are about to spend $6.4 billion on Hydro expansion. We all know they plan to waste over half a billion by putting the Bi-Pole III line in the wrong place.
Just this week the government blasted the PC Manitoba party, not for questioning where the line will go but accuse the PC party of “delaying” the line and costing Hydro future sales. The NDP conveniently forgets one thing, that Manitoba Hydro was aiming for the shorter cheaper line at least a decade ago. The delay has been of their doing by not building the line on the east side 10 years ago. We would be selling power by now if they had moved ahead 10 years ago. Perhaps the grandiose and inefficient new Hydro office sidelined their thinking.
So why didn’t they move ahead? Basically the promise of new Hydro dams is to Manitoba politics like mid-Western U.S. politicians promising to send money to the farmers. It’s just how you appease the voters. So, the longer the Manitoba politicians can stretch out the promise of Hydro prosperity, the longer you can get re-elected.
There is likely another reason that the NDP didn’t go ahead. There may be little guarantee of new markets. Hydro has two markets. One is domestic, the Manitoba market and the other is the holy grail of U.S. exports.
We were supposed to see unbridled prosperity in Manitoba if we kept domestic Hydro prices low. Businesses would flood into Manitoba to take advantage of our cheaper Hydro rates. That hasn’t happened and it’s because Manitoba isn’t all that business friendly. If a company was planning to build or expand in Manitoba, and all things were equal in their analysis against other places, why would they come here and pay a payroll tax? Even if the payroll tax here was off-set by higher income taxes in another place, the company would go there. Why? Because with a payroll tax you have to pay every month. With income tax, you only pay when you have a net income. Even if you lose money in Manitoba, you pay the payroll tax. Manitoba may as well have a “Stop, don’t stay here” sign on every entrance to Manitoba. In other words, the tax policy of Manitoba far offsets cheap Hydro rates.
Export markets are elusive. One has to wonder if Hydro will ever sell more power to Ontario or Saskatchewan or the United States. In order to sell more power, there has to be an increased market. Saskatchewan and Ontario may well develop their own power sources rather than pay us. The same could be said of the United States, especially as nuclear power becomes more efficient, is reported to be safer and is more accepted in the public eyes. There is another fact that is doubtful that the NDP have even looked at. Have they drawn a line on the map along state lines of the area they hope to sell power to? Have they looked at the population stats for that area? I’m willing to bet that population isn’t increasing that much in those ares. Without a population increase, there’s no need for more power.
How about industrial needs? Could it be that the power needs of the declining U.S. industrial base is also declining. Those are questions that need to be asked. If in fact the markets are as elusive as they appear, have we asked the really tough questions? In its simplest terms, will the markets be there after we have invested billions in new hydro dams, new power lines? Given Hydro’s record of obtaining and then losing Ontario power contracts, we should be very wary of where we place our debt dollars. And what happens if interest rates go up significantly?
These questions need to be asked. Perhaps the future of Hydro should be placed in the hands of people who are lot farther from retirement than Rosann Wochuk, Greg Sellnger or Hydro CEO Bob Brennan. After all if they screw up, it won’t be they who will have to pay for it. Just a thought.

Auctioneering, a durable tradition

January 29th, 2010

This weekend the Manitoba Auctioneers Association holds their convention in Brandon. The annual gathering of the local Manitoba bid callers is a fun time to see how others are doing in the business, how the spring bookings are coming along and what’s new in the auction industry.
In Manitoba, auctioneers are under used and under appreciated. The “auction” is a fundamental market place mechanism in the farm machinery trade, some of the cattle trade and to a small, small amount in the real estate industry. In many parts of the world, and especially so in the United States, the auction is a much more readily used instrument for determining fair prices for a range of goods.
In Manitoba, livestock such as cattle and horses, are often the subject of auction sales. Hogs used to be auctioned but that is almost a thing of the past. Hogs are priced by some convoluted accumulation of prices from various markets and then they are simply announced. There’s no argument, no discussion, that’s the price. As more and more livestock sales have moved under marketing boards over the years much of the auction action has dwindled. It’s too bad. The auction is the only really fair way of determining price on livestock. Even when deals are made between two parties privately, they refer to an auction somewhere to get a base for their discussions.
With today’s technology, there’s less need for livestock to be trucked to an auction, an internet auction can be conducted without the animals leaving their home farm and price can be determined before they are transported. The auctioneer and the auction bid process is being used as it adapts to new realities and new technologies.
When it comes to selling real estate, auctions are much more common in other parts of the country and the continent than here in Manitoba. The big advantage of land or real estate auction is that everybody gets a chance to bid if they wish. Long a problem in rural areas has been the hard feelings caused when a piece of land is sold by one person to another and the neighbours may not have had  a chance to bid on it. One disadvantage is that potential bidders have to have their money in place up front. That’s a bit of a hard nut to crack as in Manitoba we are used to getting the price set first and then going to get the financing. Getting the financing may mean borrowing from a bank or FCC or from a relative, but we have grown accustomed to having the price fixed in a conditional sales agreement before we seek the financing.
If a shift could be made in thinking about preparing financing, then the auction method of land and real estate sales would flourish. Real estate firms would have one of their people trained as an auctioneer or would use the services of an auctioneer to set up a well advertised real estate sale. It works other places and, aside from the pre-arranged financing, the auction method may well be a better way of determining price.
Compared to other ares of North America, auctioneers in Manitoba are somewhat limited in the way the public sees and uses their service. Strangely enough, the biggest decision a farmer will ever make, that of selling off his machinery, is often entrusted to the auctioneer. It’s just an accepted way of selling assets when a farming operation is winding down for whatever reason. There’s nothing quite like farm dispersal sale. The neighbours and family pitch in, the auctioneer does way more prep work ahead of time than the actual auction day entails and the prices are pretty transparent. Oh yes, there’s the highlight of the farm sale, the lunch counter. An auction sale hamburger and piece of apple pie is an absolute must.
The most common sale in Manitoba is the household disbursement sale. The largest and best sales are bittersweet affairs as often the owner has died and the family is left with the onerous task of dividing up the estate. It’s a huge job and one best done with the aid of an auctioneer. The earlier the auctioneer is called in the better. Unfortunately families usually have one or two overly zealous members who insist that a bunch of “stuff” has to be thrown out before the auctioneer is called. That’s probably the biggest mistake a family makes. Before anything is tossed, the family should consult with the auctioneer. Case in point, a few  years ago when I was in still in the auction business, I was called to a home where a lot of prep work had been done and the family members were busy washing relatively worthless quart sealers and packing them in boxes. That wasn’t so bad but they were using highly collectible Roy Rogers calendars to wrap the sealers. The calendars were worth a lot of money, the sealers, well maybe not so much. If I can offer one word of advice, call the auctioneer as early as possible when a sale is being planned.
Very few auctioneers in Manitoba work at it full time. Auctioneering is usually a side line or a second source of income. Few have made enough money at auctioneering to say it’s their sole source of income. Nevertheless, the auction business in Manitoba is alive and well, a mainstay of both tradition and price setting. The Manitoba Auctioneers’ Association has worked hard over the last 20 years or so to raise standards, to educate members and  the public and to provide service with integrity to Manitoba. 

Too mild, too slow, too late

January 23rd, 2010

Take a look at a quote from Stats Canada about Manitoba’s farm population.“Manitoba’s farm population continued its steady decline in numbers, dropping by 8.1 per cent since 2001 to 62,930. In 1931, when the farm population count in Manitoba was compiled for the first time, 256,305 people were living on a farm—36.6 per cent of Manitoba’s population. By 2006, the farm population accounted for only 5.5 per cent of the province. In less than one lifetime, Manitoba has moved from one in three inhabitants living on a farm to one in 18. At the same time, Manitoba’s total population has grown from 700,139 in 1931 to 1,148,400 in 2006.”
By the same comparison, the percentage of Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) from rural Manitoba has declined. There was a time when the legislature actually hurried to get through their spring sitting days so the MLAs could go home to their farms to seed their crops. That’s not even a consideration today.
There was also a time when rural Manitoba’s interests and farming was looked after by the MLAs and by the government or they wouldn’t get re-elected. That’s not even a consideration today either.
In the last four decades or so of the 1900s, many farm organizations rose up to promote and protect the interests of farmers. Every commodity has its group such as potato growers, wheat growers and canola growers. There there’s the Manitoba Cattle Producers Association, The Manitoba Pork Council and the umbrella organization, the Keystone Agricultural Producers.
All have had their struggles but have in some ways served their members well.
However, all have failed in that government no longer listens to farmers or to farm groups. They don’t actually listen to any rural groups, be they agricultural, First Nations or Inuit.
How have the farm groups failed?
Too mild
As the title at the top of this column suggests, farmers and farm groups have been too mild, too slow and now it’s too late. Too mild in that they have failed to get in the face of government when proposed legislation has been bad for farming. The recent hog moratorium was  bad, bad legislation. Furthermore, the former premier, Gary Doer lied outright to the Manitoba Pork Council. Instead of exposing that lie and refusing to deal a with government it wasn’t more than two months later that “Grinning Gary” was on the legislature steps flipping pork on a bun with the head guys at the Pork Council. I’m not sure who organized that love-in event but it was bad tactics for the Pork Council to be so cozy with the enemy.
Too slow 
Farm groups have let themselves get side tracked by government. When BSE hit the beef industry in May 2003, the farmers were angry and motivated. They wanted to set up a federally inspected slaughter plant to export Manitoba beef. There were some good ideas. One was to ask the government to allow MASC to finance shares in numerous smaller, existing and new slaughter facilities. Perhaps 15 or more small federally inspected plants could have been  built or upgraded. But no, before long the government had into the driver’s seat. Not willing to let farmers and the existing butchers build their own solutions with a few $1-2 million plants, it had to be one big $8 million monster, then a $12 million giant and then over $20 million. By that time, the whole thing collapsed like a house of cards. Many small plants, federally inspected and locally sourced and operated might have worked. At least the risk would have been spread out. One huge plant was doomed to fail just like many in the past have failed. Too slow, way too slow.
Too late
For most of Manitoba’s farm commodities and dozens of farm communities, it’s too late. Sure, we’ll grow and export grain and oilseeds, but much potential has been lost. The hog industry is on a long, painful road and the only thing keeping it going is that companies like Hytek and Maple Leaf are highly integrated and have international markets. Hytek started, and is still today, a family owned cpmpany. The beef industry lacks any big players like Hyek and Maple Leaf and is is pretty much in the tank.
Unless Manitoba farm groups can get the ear of government, no farmer-friendly legislation will come from forward. In fact unless farm groups can get the ear of government, only resistance and multiple road  blocks will continue to come from government.
Farmers no longer have any political clout in Mnaitoba. They have no cohesive gutsy leadership that can bend government or public sympathy their way. Not for subsidies, which are wrong, but just for good strong enabling legislation that will help environmentally friendly agriculture to feed us all while making a profit in a progressive manner. All the farm groups must get their act together. 
They have to stop being slow and mild. No more burger flipping photo opps with government leaders who have been downright nasty to farmers. No more sitting down in plush government offices and hearing nicey, nicey words from ag ministers who neither know about, nor care about, agriculture.
No more soft approaches. Farmers have to stand up and be heard or they will simply keep on disappearing.
The reality is that without a farmer friendly government, we risk not being able to produce food any more. It doesn’t matter in the short term. The other provinces or the United States could feed all of Manitoba very easily. But, in the longer term, a secure food system is a national security issue. Just ask European countries or ask South Korea. They will tell you that national security and food production are intricately linked.
It’s time our farmers realized that and it’s time our governments realized it too.

January 16th, 2010

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has come under a barrage of criticism over proroguing parliament. It’s actually a bit amusing as, to hear the opposition and the media squeal, you would think that Harper had done something quite new and therefore dastardly.Compared to Liberal PMs, Stephen Harper is a proroguing amateur. If you look at the scorecard it shows some interesting points. The following data is courtesy of John Feldsted of Winnipeg. Take a look at Chretien versus Harper and Trudeau versus Harper.
“Chretien 4, Harper 2.
35th Parliament 1996/2/2, 36th Parliament 1999/9/18, 37th Parliament 2002/9/16 , 37th Parliament 2003/11/12 (done to avoid the auditor generals’ release of the report on Adscam)
And if you really want a lopsided score how about this one:
Trudeau 11, Harper 2.
26th Parliament Trudeau 1963/12/21, 26th Parliament Trudeau 1965/4/3, 27th Parliament Trudeau 1967/5/8, 28th Parliament Trudeau 1969/10/22, 28th Parliament Trudeau 1970/10/7, 28th Parliament Trudeau 1972/2/16, 29th Parliament Trudeau 1974/2/26, 30th Parliament Trudeau 1976/10/12, 30th Parliament Trudeau 1977/10/17, 30th Parliament Trudeau 1978/10/10, 30th Parliament Trudeau 1983/11/30
Now, where was all of the outrage on these 15 prorogations, and more importantly why are these numbers not front and center in the multitude of stories on the topic?”
Feldsted goes on to explain, “Parliament is not prorogued until Jan. 25th and will only last for 22 sitting days, so whenever you hear such things as it lasting “three months” or statements implying that it is already prorogued, or that is unconstitutional etc., feel free to call BS on whomever said it and let them know we are on to their lies.”
Now John gets a little expressive in his views but he raises good points. Indeed, where was the media howling when Chretien prorogued or Trudeau. Harper is using the rules, the accepted and decades old rules, to operate parliament. What many people forget is that although Harper only has a minority he is indeed the prime minister and has the most seats in parliament. He has every right to prorogue parliament and set up a new throne speech and a new budget.
He also has the right to appoint news senators and may soon do so. When he does he will have a good possibility of getting the Senate to actually pass some bills. Many of those bills have been stalled for three years by  a Liberal dominated Senate. The media don’t tell us much about that. Even the Manitoba NDP government want tougher crime bills passed and rather than work with legislation they have they are blaming the Senate.
Now the reason the opposition say Harper is proroguing parliament is to cover up the Afghan detainee issue. They say the Harper government knew about possible torture and covered it up. That could be, I guess, but let’s be realistic here. The Canadian soldiers go out on patrol at huge risk to life and limb. They get shot at, they get bombed, some of them are now dead. Often they are injured. So, in a tribal warfare country, where the enemy doesn’t wear uniforms and where every devious trick known to man has been used against us, the Canadians are supposed to capture Taliban and then play nice. The truth is the Canadian troops usually do. They quietly lower their guns and escort the prisoners to a holding area. Then they turn them over to the Afghan police or army. Does any Canadian really care if one of these terrorists actually gets roughed up by his own countrymen while under detention? I don’t bloody think so. The Afghan detainees can be thankful that it’s 2010 era Canadian soldiers that have captured them and not 1945 era Russian or German soldiers. I happen to know from first hand accounts told to me that nobody wanted to surrender to the Russians in 1945 and for very good reasons.
The opposition is off base and so is much of the media in hounding Harper about proroguing parliament. Let the MPs consult with constituents and let them come up with a good budget and good policies. The opposition say they want to let parliament work, well here’s their chance.


kwaddell@kenwaddell.ca This is a Sunrize Group internet solution (204)226-2247